#predict

Quine can predict cross-propensity spillover. (imperfectly but significantly better than chance)

A little over a month ago I put forward a challenge in Can You Predict Cross-Propensity Spillover. The results are in and we have a winner. Well actually we have a rules ambiguity, but I'll get into that later. My SPAR group ran a 2 × 24 × 24 [1] propensity SFT spillover experiment (i.e. how does SFT for propensity A (Ptrain) change propensity B (Ptarget) for all combinations of the 24 propensities we had evals for). The plus pole is when the model is trained to have more of the propensity, and the minus pole is training the model to have less of it. Before releasing the results we gave you lo

LessWrong · EN

Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record as climate talks begin

Scientists are predictng this could be the hottest year on record as the COP31 climate summit opens.

BBC Science · EN

Acorns—not deer—can predict a rise in Lyme-spreading ticks

Despite deer’s essential role in tick reproduction, looking to acorn numbers instead can forecast Lyme disease booms almost two years in advance

Scientific American · EN

Scientists identify two overlooked skills that predict reading success

A massive new study reveals that intelligence plays a surprisingly limited role in children's reading success, while visual processing showed no meaningful connection at all. Instead, the strongest predictors are sound recognition, vocabulary, and background knowledge, offering new clues about how to help struggling readers.

ScienceDaily · EN